dolution

dolution.

You want to sell a painting you inherited from a grandparent. There is a 10% chance it is painted by a famous artist, in which case it’s worth $100,000. There is a 30% chance it is painted by an art student, in which case it’s worth $2,000. Otherwise, your grandparent must have painted it at a wine and paint night, in which case it’s worth $0. What is the fair price to charge, right now, for a contract that entitles someone to the right, but not the obligation to pay $10,000 for the painting after we discover who painted it? Please express your answer as a dollar amount (e.g. $xx,xxx)

dolution

 
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