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Carol’s Auto Sales has sold the following number of cars in the last 6 months: Jan 370 Feb 352 Mar 405 Apr 390 May 372 Jun 471

The 3-month moving average forecast for July is 411 cars. The 3-month weighted moving average forecast for July (using these weights: one month back: 0.5, two months back: 0.3, three months back: 0.2) is 425.1. The exponential smoothing forecast for July (using alpha = 0.3 and a forecast of 375 for January) is 406.553. The exponential smoothing forecast for July (using alpha = 0.2 and a forecast of 380 for January) is 397.811. a) Calculate a linear trend forecast for July. b) Compute the MAD for the five forecasts above. Which forecast is the best for July and why?