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Year Month Passengers
Year 1 January 13,441,718
Year 1 February 11,942,221
Year 1 March 14,670,996
Year 1 April 14,286,844
Year 1 May 14,537,314
Year 1 June 15,906,101
Year 1 July 17,362,586
Year 1 August 16,969,528
Year 1 September 14,010,920
Year 1 October 13,599,030
Year 1 November 12,919,746
Year 1 December 14,289,105
Year 2 January 13,970,077
Year 2 February 12,230,963
Year 2 March 15,447,435
Year 2 April 14,507,038
Year 2 May 15,516,063
Year 2 June 16,487,702
Year 2 July 17,954,910
Year 2 August 17,786,357
Year 2 September 14,408,817
Year 2 October 14,374,254
Year 2 November 13,258,104
Year 2 December 15,182,616
  1. What forces seem to be at work here in terms of trend and seasonality? Explore the data and comment on the trend and seasonality patterns present in the data. (3 marks)
  2. Use the “seasonality forecasting technique with no trend” to forecast the international passenger volume for each month of year 3 in this airport. (Use the actual number of passengers as the initial value for exponential smoothing. Use smoothing constant 0.3) (10 marks)
  3. Create a graph comparing the actual number of passengers versus forecasted volume from part (b) and comment on how they compare. (2 marks)
 
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