dolution
Match the following uncertainty addressing strategies with the associated barrier on a “Bowtie” diagram and whether it relates to Upside or Downside.
Question 1 options:
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The steps of a risk management process should be merged with the project team’s work plans.
| True | |
| False |
A particular uncertainty may be managed at more than one level. Which of the following statements are recommended regarding the promoting and demoting of uncertainties? (Select all that apply)
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Game changers and show-stoppers should be listed in the business-unit (or even corporate) register |
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Low-level/small/green uncertainties should stay in discipline logs/registers |
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High-level/critical/red uncertainties should be shown in both project and business-unit registers |
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The promoting of critical uncertainties is necessary only if you think the project manager or business unit managers are capable of dealing with them. |
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Medium-level/material/yellow uncertainties should be placed in either discipline or project registers |
Which of the following recommendations should be considered regarding use of correlations in Monte Carlo analyses? (Select all that apply)
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Only strong correlations and anti-correlations (coefficients 80–100%) should be taken into account |
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Use correlations to suppress unrealistic scenarios in Monte Carlo models |
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Strong correlations and anti-correlations have no effect and should not be taken into account |
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Never use correlations in Monte Carlo analyses |
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There is no need to spend time discussing weak correlations—they do not make much difference |
The key value of Monte Carlo simulation is that it imitates statistics on completion dates and/or total costs for thousands of relevant projects.
Question 5 options:
| True | |
| False |
The risk management plan should define criteria (confidence levels) for project reserve (?) and additional management reserve (d) for cost and schedule analyses.
| True | |
| False |
It should be stated which uncertainty objects are covered by the total reserve.
| True | |
| False |
Select all that apply regarding the planning and content of a probabilistic analysis method statement.
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The previous experience of a project team in providing quality inputs to the analysis should be taken into account when planning the analysis. |
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The method statement is a key document that outlines the scope, schedule, resources, interfaces, and deliverables of the probabilistic risk analysis. |
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There is no need to have a probabilistic analysis method statement for conducting probabilistic analysis if project cost objectives have significant general uncertainties and the capital expenditures are expected to be over $500M. |
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Probabilistic risk analysis should be considered and managed as a mini-project. |
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The method statement should reflect the interests of decision makers in particular what-if scenarios. |
Assuming three-point input distributions, which of the following are required inputs to probabilistic Monte Carlo analysis for an uncertain event? (Select all that apply)
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Main correlations among distributions |
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Duration/cost impact range (min and max) |
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Mapping of uncertian events to impacted normal activities (only for schedule analysis) |
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Most likely duration/cost impact of the uncertain event |
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Probability range (min and max) |
Some organizations use project reserve ? (released to a project team) and management reserve d(not released to a project team) and some organizations use one total project reserve ?.
Question 10 options:
| True | |
| False |
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