Match the following uncertainty addressing strategies with the associated barrier on a “Bowtie” diagram and whether it relates to Upside or Downside.

Question 1 options:


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Upside Uncertainty, Barrier 1


Downside Uncertainty, Barrier 1


Downside Uncertainty, Barrier 2


Upside Uncertainty, Barrier 2

The steps of a risk management process should be merged with the project team’s work plans.


A particular uncertainty may be managed at more than one level. Which of the following statements are recommended regarding the promoting and demoting of uncertainties? (Select all that apply)

Game changers and show-stoppers should be listed in the business-unit (or even corporate) register

Low-level/small/green uncertainties should stay in discipline logs/registers

High-level/critical/red uncertainties should be shown in both project and business-unit registers

The promoting of critical uncertainties is necessary only if you think the project manager or business unit managers are capable of dealing with them.

Medium-level/material/yellow uncertainties should be placed in either discipline or project registers

Which of the following recommendations should be considered regarding use of correlations in Monte Carlo analyses? (Select all that apply)

Only strong correlations and anti-correlations (coefficients 80–100%) should be taken into account

Use correlations to suppress unrealistic scenarios in Monte Carlo models

Strong correlations and anti-correlations have no effect and should not be taken into account

Never use correlations in Monte Carlo analyses

There is no need to spend time discussing weak correlations—they do not make much difference

The key value of Monte Carlo simulation is that it imitates statistics on completion dates and/or total costs for thousands of relevant projects.

Question 5 options:


The risk management plan should define criteria (confidence levels) for project reserve (?) and additional management reserve (d) for cost and schedule analyses.


It should be stated which uncertainty objects are covered by the total reserve.


Select all that apply regarding the planning and content of a probabilistic analysis method statement.

The previous experience of a project team in providing quality inputs to the analysis should be taken into account when planning the analysis.

The method statement is a key document that outlines the scope, schedule, resources, interfaces, and deliverables of the probabilistic risk analysis.

There is no need to have a probabilistic analysis method statement for conducting probabilistic analysis if project cost objectives have significant general uncertainties and the capital expenditures are expected to be over $500M.

Probabilistic risk analysis should be considered and managed as a mini-project.

The method statement should reflect the interests of decision makers in particular what-if scenarios.

Assuming three-point input distributions, which of the following are required inputs to probabilistic Monte Carlo analysis for an uncertain event? (Select all that apply)

Main correlations among distributions

Duration/cost impact range (min and max)

Mapping of uncertian events to impacted normal activities (only for schedule analysis)

Most likely duration/cost impact of the uncertain event

Probability range (min and max)

Some organizations use project reserve ? (released to a project team) and management reserve d(not released to a project team) and some organizations use one total project reserve ?.

Question 10 options:

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