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- The Great Northwest Outdoor Company is a catalog sales operation that specializes in outdoor recreational clothing. Demand for its items is very seasonal, peaking during the holiday season and during the spring. It has accumulated the following data for orders per season (quarter) during the past five years.
Orders (1,000s)
|
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Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|
|
Winter (Q 1) |
18.6 |
18.1 |
22.4 |
23.2 |
24.5 |
|
Spring (Q 2) |
23.5 |
24.7 |
28.8 |
27.6 |
31.0 |
|
Summer (Q 3) |
20.4 |
19.5 |
21.0 |
24.4 |
23.7 |
|
Fall (Q 4) |
41.9 |
46.3 |
45.5 |
47.1 |
52.8 |
|
Total |
104.4 |
108.6 |
117.7 |
122.3 |
132.0 |
Develop a seasonally adjusted forecast model for these order data. Forecast demand for each quarter for year 6, using a linear forecast estimate for orders in year 6. Use the annual trend line as given: Y(t) = 96.33 + 6.89t
- Find seasonal index for each quarter. Seasonal index for each quarter = Di/ SD
- Find seasonally adjusted demand forecast for each quarter for year 6.
- Find MAD for seasonally adjusted forecasting.
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