Carol’s Auto Sales has sold the following number of cars in the last 6 months: Jan 370 Feb 352 Mar 405 Apr 390 May 372 Jun 471

The 3-month moving average forecast for July is 411 cars. The 3-month weighted moving average forecast for July (using these weights: one month back: 0.5, two months back: 0.3, three months back: 0.2) is 425.1. The exponential smoothing forecast for July (using alpha = 0.3 and a forecast of 375 for January) is 406.553. The exponential smoothing forecast for July (using alpha = 0.2 and a forecast of 380 for January) is 397.811. a) Calculate a linear trend forecast for July. b) Compute the MAD for the five forecasts above. Which forecast is the best for July and why?

Successful logrolling requires:
Select one:

a.
no additional information about the other party than his/her interests, and assumes that simply enlarging the resources will solve the problem.

b.
that one party is allowed to obtain his/her objectives and he/she then “pays off” the other party for accommodating his/her interests.

c.
that the parties establish more than one issue in conflict and then agree to trade off among these issues so one party achieves a highly preferred outcome on the first issue and the other person achieves a highly preferred outcome on the second issue.

d.
a fundamental reformulation of the problem such that the parties are disclosing sufficient information to discover their interests and needs and then inventing options that will satisfy both parties’ needs.