Case #8 Nucor 100 Points

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Case #8 Nucor 100 Points.

Operating assumptions

Exhibit 12B
Modernized Unmodernized
Thin-slab Minimill Integrated Mill Integrated Mill
HR CR HR CR HR CR
Operating assumptions
Labor / hour $20.00 $20.00 $23.50 $23.50 $23.50 $23.50
Scrap / ton $90.00 $90.00 $80.00 $80.00 $80.00 $80.00
Man hours / ton 1.75 2.65 2.85 4.50 3.90 5.85
Capacity Utilization 90.00% 90.00% 90.00% 90.00% 75.00% 75.00%
Operation costs / ton
Labor $35.00 $53.00 $67.00 $105.50 $91.50 $141.00
Ore 0 0 51 54 52 56
Coal 0 0 35 37.5 38 40.5
Energy 24 38 9 23 9.5 25
Scrap 100 102 13.5 9.5 19.5 15.5
Materials and supplies 56 72.5 71 93 72.5 95.5
Maintenance & repairs 10 17.5 15 26.5 17 29.5
Total costs / ton $225.00 $283.00 $261.50 $349.00 $300.00 $403.00
Revenue / ton $306.50 $390.50 $326.00 $454.50 $325.00 $453.00

CF analysis-thin slab

Assumptions:
Annual growth rate of price of steel 4.00% 6.84% (historical)
Annual growth rate of operating costs 4.00%
Tax rate 35.00%
Discount rate 15.00%
Thin Slab Minimill
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Capacity(million of tons of steel) 0 0 0
Shipments (12A)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12A) 0 0 0 0.25 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12A) 0 0 0 0.175 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35
Revenue / ton
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 306.5
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 390.5
Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR)
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR)
Operating costs / ton
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 225
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 283
Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR)
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR)
Depreciate over 10 years 0.00
Income
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR)
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR)
Total income
Taxes
Add back depreciation 0.00
Subtract capital expenditures
Subtract startup costs 30.00
Subtract working capital costs 30.00
Cash flow
Internal rate of return (IRR)
Discounted cash flow
Sum of discounted cash flow
Investment criterion: 25% ROA by year 5? Year 5 CF:
Year 5 Assets:
Year 5 ROA:

CF analysis – Modernize

Assumptions:
Annual growth rate of price of steel 4.00% 6.84% (historical)
Annual growth rate of operating costs 4.00%
Tax rate 35.00%
Discount rate 15.00%
Modernized integrated mill
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Capacity(million of tons of steel) 0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
Shipments (12A)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12A) 0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12A) 0 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35
Revenue / ton
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 326
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 454.5
Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR)
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR)
Operating costs / ton
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 261.5
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 349
Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR)
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR)
Depreciate over 25 years 0
Income
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR)
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR)
Total income
Taxes
Add back depreciation 0
Subtract capital expenditures
Cash flow
Internal rate of return (IRR)
Discounted cash flow
Sum of discounted cash flow
Investment criterion: 25% ROA by year 5? Year 5 CF:
Year 5 Assets:
Year 5 ROA:

CF analysis – Unmodernized

Assumptions:
Annual growth rate of price of steel 4.00% 6.84% (historical)
Annual growth rate of operating costs 4.00%
Tax rate 35.00%
Discount rate 15.00%
Unmodernized integrated mill
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Capacity(million of tons of steel) 0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
Shipments (12A)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08
Revenue / ton
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 325
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 453
Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR)
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR)
Operating costs / ton
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 300
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 403
Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR)
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR)
Depreciate over 25 years (no expenditure to dep.) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Income
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR)
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR)
Total income
Taxes
Add back depreciation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Subtract capital expenditures 0
Cash flow
Discounted cash flow
Sum of discounted cash flow

Case #8 Nucor 100 Points

 
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